Retail | P | Prevalence of Salmonella at retail | | Pert(22.4, 31.65, 42.3) | (Chung et al., 2003; Hyeon et al., 2011; Kim et al., 2012) |
COSC | Contamination of chicken with Salmonella at retail | | Discrete([0, 1], [100–P, P]) | |
TeR | Temperature of chicken at retail | ℃ | 4 | (WHO, 2002) |
LCSC | Log concentration of Salmonella at retail | Log(CFU/g) | Pert(4.3, 5.3, 6.3) | (Hong et al., 2008) |
CSC | Concentration of Salmonella at retail | CFU/g | 10^LCSC | |
CCH | Concentration of chlorination | ppm | 0 | |
λ | Parameter of Salmonella reduction effect | | 1 | |
ORE | Contamination level at retail | CFU/g | IF(COSC=0, 0, CSC×λ) | |
Transport | TiT | Transport and shopping time | h | Pert(17/60, 26/60, 35/60)+Pert(0.5, 0.75, 1) | (Trendmonitor, 2018) |
TeT | Ambient temperature | ℃ | Pert(min, median, max) | (Korea Meteorological Administration, 2018) |
TeTR | Chicken temperature after transport | ℃ | IF(exp(TiT)–1+TeR>TeT, TeT, exp(TiT)–1+TeR) | |
AvTeTR | Average temperature between retail and after transport | ℃ | Average(TeR, TeTR) | |
TIAMTR | Time when chicken temperature reaches ambient temperature | h | LOG(TeT, exp(1)) | |
LT | Lag time of Salmonella | h | 1/(0.02082×AvTeTR–0.01235)2 | (Oscar, 2005) |
GRRETR | Growth rate of Salmonella between retail and transport before chicken reaches ambient temperature | Log(CFU/g/h) | IF(AvTeTR>TeT, 0.0019×(AvTeTR–3.35)^2×(1–exp(0.29×(AvTeTR–48.01))), 0) | (Juneja et al., 2007) |
GRAMTR | Growth rate of Salmonella at ambient temperature during transport | Log(CFU/g/h) | 0.0019×(TeT–3.35)^2×(1–exp(0.29× (TeT–48.01))) | (Juneja et al., 2007) |
MPD | Maximum population density | Log(CFU/g) | 9.5 | (Silva et al., 2009) |
GS | Growth of Salmonella | Log(CFU/g) | IF(TIT<TIAMTR, GRRETR×TiT, GRRETR×TIAMTR+GRAMTR×(TiT–TIAMTR)) | |
OTR | Contamination level after transport | CFU/g | IF(ORE+exp(GS)<exp(MPD), ORE+exp(GS), exp(MPD)) | |
Cooking | TeC | Cooking temperature | ℃ | Pert(71×0.8, 71, 71×1.2) | (Song et al., 2014) |
TiC | Cooking time | min | Pert(10, 15, 20) | (Lee et al., 2011) |
D | D-value | min | 10^(8.7344–(0.1316×TeC)) | (Murphy et al., 2002) |
LCR | Log cycle reduction | - | TiC/D | |
OC | Contamination level after cooking | CFU/g | (10^(–LCR))×OTR | |
Consumption | CW | Consumption weight | g | Pert(100, 200, 300) | (Fatsecret, 2018) |
Dose | Amount of Salmonella consumed | CFU | OC×CW | |
PILL | Probability of illness | | IF(P=0, 0, (1– (1+10^Dose/2885)^ (–0.3126))) | (WHO, 2002) |