Table 2. The simulation model and formulas in a Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet used to calculate the risk of Escherichia coli in processed cheese by means of the @RISK software

Input Model Unit Code Formula References
CONSUMPTION
Daily consumption g Consump =RiskWeibull[1.3482, 20.932, MFDS (2013),
average amount  RiskShift(0.26384),RiskTruncate(0,100)]
Daily consumption % ConFre Fixed 2.323 MFDS (2013)
frequency
CF(0) =1−2.323/100 MFDS (2013)
CF(1) =2.323/100 MFDS (2013)
CF =RiskDiscrete{[0,1],[CF(0),CF(1)]} MFDS (2013)
ConFre =IF(CF=0,0,Consump) MFDS (2013)
DOSE-RESPONSE
Non-EHEC E. coli amount D =10C4×ConFre
Parameter of α α =Fixed 2.21×10−1 Powell (2000)
Parameter of N50 N50 =Fixed 6.85×107 Powell (2000)
RISK
Probability of Risk =1−(1+{D×[(21/α)−1]/N50})−α Powell (2000)
illness/person/day