Table 2. The simulation model and formulas in a Microsoft Excel^® spreadsheet used to calculate the risk of Escherichia coli in processed cheese by means of the @RISK software

Input Model	Unit	Code	Formula	References
Y0	Log CFU/g	Y0	=average(Y0i), Fixed 3.11	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Yend	Log CFU/g	Yend	=average(Yendi), Fixed 7.32	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
ln(q)		ln(q)	=LN{1/[EXP(h0)−1]}	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Lag time	h	Markdis−TimeLt	=IF{Mark−Tempdis>4,	MFDS (2013)
			[1/(−0.0826+0.0275×Mark−Tempdis)]2, 1320}
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	Markdis−RGr	=IF(Mark−Tempdis>8.6,0.0036−0.0030×	MFDS (2013)
			Mark−Tempdis+0.0004×Mark−Tempdis2, 0)	Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
Non-EHEC	Log CFU/g	C2	=(C2−1)+1/{1+EXP[−ln(q)]}×[1−10−|Y0−Yend|/	MFDS (2013)
E. coli growth			LN(10)]×Markdis−RGr×Mark−timedis	Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
TRANSPORTATION (CAR)
Transportation
(CAR) storage
Transportation time	h	timecar	=RiskPert(0.325,0.984,1.643)	Jung (2011)
Food temperature	°C	Tempcar	=RiskPert(10,18,25)	Jung (2011)
during transportation
Growth
h0	Log CFU/g	h0	=average(growth rate×lag time), Fixed 0.65	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Y0	Log CFU/g	Y0	=average(Y0i), Fixed 3.11	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Yend	Log CFU/g	Yend	=average(Yendi), Fixed 7.32	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
ln(q)		ln(q)	=LN{1/[EXP(h0)−1]}	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Lag time	h	Car−TimeLt	=IF{Tempcar>4,	MFDS (2013)
			[1/(−0.0826+0.0275×Tempcar)]2, 1320}
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	Car−RGr	=IF(Tempcar>8.6,	MFDS (2013)
			0.0036−0.0030×Tempcar+0.0004×Tempcar2, 0)	Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
Non-EHEC	Log CFU/g	C3	=C2+1/{1+EXP[−ln(q)]}×[1−10−|Y0−Yend|/	MFDS (2013)
E. coli growth			LN(10)]×Car−RGr×timecar	Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
HOME
Home storage
Storage time	h	Home−timest	=RiskNormal[250.1742, 176.0175,	Lee et al. (2015)
			RiskTruncate(0,4320)]
Food temperature	°C	Home−Tempst	=RiskLogLogistic[-29.283, 33.227, 26.666,	Lee et al. (2015)
during storage			RiskTruncate(−5,20)]
Growth
h0	Log CFU/g	h0	=average(growth rate×lag time), Fixed 0.65	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Y0	Log CFU/g	Y0	=average(Y0i), Fixed 3.11	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Yend	Log CFU/g	Yend	=average(Yendi), Fixed 7.32	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
ln(q)		ln(q)	=LN{1/[EXP(h0)−1]}	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Lag time	h	Home−TimeLt	=IF{Home−Tempst>4,	MFDS (2013)
			[1/(−0.0826+0.0275×Home−Tempst)]2, 1320}
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	Home−RGr	=IF(Home−Tempst>8.6,0.0036−0.0030×	MFDS (2013)
			Home−Tempst+0.0004×Home−Tempst2,0)	Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
Non-EHEC	Log CFU/g	C4	=C3+1/{1+EXP[−ln(q)]}×[1−10−|Y0−Yend|/	MFDS (2013)
E. coli growth			LN(10)]×Home−RGr×Home−timest	Baranyi and Roberts (1994)