Table 2. The simulation model and formulas in a Microsoft Excel^® spreadsheet used to calculate the risk of Escherichia coli in processed cheese by means of the @RISK software

Input Model	Unit	Code	Formula	References
PRODUCT
Product
Pathogen Contamination
level
Non-EHEC E. coli		PR	=RiskBeta(1,309)	Vose (1998)
prevalence
Concentration	CFU/g	C	=RiskUniform(0,2.8)	Vose (1998)
Initial contamination level	CFU/g	IC	=PR×C	Vose (1998)
	Log CFU/g	log(IC)	=log(PR×C)
TRANSPORTATION
Transportation time	h	timetrans	=RiskPert(1,3,6)	Personal communicationa
Food temperature	°C	Temptrans	=RiskPert(0,4,10)	Personal communicationa
during transportation
Growth
h0	Log CFU/g	h0	=average(growth rate×lag time), Fixed 0.65	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Y0	Log CFU/g	Y0	=average(Y0i), Fixed 3.11	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Yend	Log CFU/g	Yend	=average(Yendi), Fixed 7.32	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
ln(q)		ln(q)	=LN{1/[EXP(h0)−1]}	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Lag time	h	TransLt	=IF{Temptrans>4,	MFDS (2013)
			[1/(−0.0826+0.0275×Tempcar)]2, 1320}
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	TransGr	=IF(Temptrans>8.6,0.0036−0.0030×Temptrans+	MFDS (2013)
			0.0004×Temptrans2, 0)	Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
Non-EHEC	Log CFU/g	C1	=IC+1/{1+EXP[−ln(q)]}×[1−10−|Y0−Yend|/	MFDS (2013)
E. coli growth			LN(10)]×TransGr×timetrans	Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
MARKET
Market storage
Storage time	h	Market-timest	=RiskPert(0,2,48)	Personal communicationb
Food temperature	°C	Mark-Tempst	=RiskUniform(2,4)	Personal communicationb
during storage
Growth
h0	Log CFU/g	h0	=average(growth rate×lag time), Fixed 0.65	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Y0	Log CFU/g	Y0	=average(Y0i), Fixed 3.11	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Yend	Log CFU/g	Yend	=average(Yendi), Fixed 7.32	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
ln(q)		ln(q)	=LN{1/[EXP(h0)−1]}	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Lag time	h	Markst−TimeLt	=IF{Mark−Tempst>4,	MFDS (2013)
			[1/(−0.0826+0.0275×Mark−Tempst)]2, 1320}
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	Markst−RGr	=IF(Mark−Tempst>8.6,0.0036−0.0030×	MFDS (2013)
			Mark−Tempst+0.0004×Mark−Tempst2, 0)	Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
Non-EHEC	Log CFU/g	C2−1	=C1+1/{1+EXP[−ln(q)]}×[1−10−|Y0−Yend|/	MFDS (2013)
E. coli growth			LN(10)]×Mark−RGr×Mark−timest	Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Market display
Storage time	h	Mark−timedis	=RiskPert(0,48,168)	Personal communicationb
Food temperature	°C	Mark−Tempdis	=RiskTriang(0.60703,4.1000,15.18)	Lee et al. (2015)
during storage
Growth
h0	Log CFU/g	h0	=average(growth rate×lag time), Fixed 0.65	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)