Table 1. The simulation model and formulas in a Microsoft Excel^® spreadsheet used to calculate the risk of illness of Escherichia coli in natural cheese by means of the @RISK software

Input Model	Unit	Code	Formula	References
TRANSPORTATION (CAR)
Transportation
(CAR) storage
Transportation time	h	timecar	=RiskPert(0.325,0.984,1.643)	Jung (2011)
Food temperature	°C	Tempcar	=RiskPert(10,18,25)	Jung (2011)
during transportation
Growth
h0	Log CFU/g	h0	=average(growth rate×lag time), Fixed 2.26	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Y0	Log CFU/g	Y0	=average(Y0i), Fixed 3.36	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Yend	Log CFU/g	Yend	=average(Yendi), Fixed 9.04	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
ln(q)		ln(q)	=LN{1/[EXP(h0)−1]}	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Lag time	h	Car-TimeLt	=IF{Tempcar>4,	MFDS (2013)
			[1/(−0.0522+0.0142×Tempcar)]2, 1320}
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	Car−RGr	=IF{Tempcar>5.4235,	MFDS (2013)
			[0.0268×(Tempcar−5.4235)]2, 0}	Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
Non-EHEC	Log CFU/g	C3	=C2+1/{1+EXP[−ln(q)]}×[1−10−|Y0−Yend|/	MFDS (2013)
E. coli growth			LN(10)]×Car−RGr×timecar	Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
HOME
Home storage
Storage time	h	Home-timest	RiskNormal[250.1742, 176.0175,	Lee et al. (2015)
			RiskTruncate(0,4320)]
Food temperature	°C	Home-Tempst	=RiskLogLogistic[-29.283, 33.227, 26.666,	Lee et al. (2015)
during storage			RiskTruncate(−5,20)]
Growth
h0	Log CFU/g	h0	=average(growth rate×lag time), Fixed 2.26	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Y0	Log CFU/g	Y0	=average(Y0i), Fixed 3.36	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Yend	Log CFU/g	Yend	=average(Yendi), Fixed 9.04	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
ln(q)		ln(q)	=LN{1/[EXP(h0)−1]}	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Lag time	h	Home−TimeLt	=IF{Home−Tempst>4,	MFDS (2013)
			[1/(−0.0522+0.0142×Home−Tempst)]2, 1320}
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	Home−RGr	=IF{Home−Tempst>5.4235,	MFDS (2013)
			[0.0268×(Home−Tempst−5.4235)]2, 0}	Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
Non-EHEC	Log CFU/g	C4	=C3+1/{1+EXP[−ln(q)]}×[1−10−|Y0−Yend|/	MFDS (2013)
E. coli growth			LN(10)]×Home−RGr×Home−timest	Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
CONSUMPTION
Daily consumption	g	Consump	=RiskPearson5[2.6488, 25.81,	MFDS (2013)
average amount			RiskTruncate(0,100),RiskShift(-3.2572)]
Daily consumption	%	ConFre	Fixed 3.894	MFDS (2013)
frequency
		CF(0)	=1−3.894/100	MFDS (2013),
		CF(1)	=3.894/100	MFDS (2013),
		CF	=RiskDiscrete[{0,1},{CF(0),CF(1)}]	MFDS (2013),
		ConFre	=IF(CF=0,0,Consump)	MFDS (2013),
DOSE-RESPONSE
Non-EHEC E. coli amount		D	=10C4×ConFre
Parameter of α		α	=Fixed 2.21×10−1	Powell (2000)
Parameter of N50		N50	=Fixed 6.85×107	Powell (2000)
RISK
Probability of		Risk	=1−(1+{D×[(21/α)−1]/N50})−α	Powell (2000)
illness/person/day