Table 1. The simulation model and formulas in a Microsoft Excel^® spreadsheet used to calculate the risk of illness of Escherichia coli in natural cheese by means of the @RISK software

Input Model	Unit	Code	Formula	References
Growth
h0	Log CFU/g	h0	=average(growth rate×lag time), Fixed 2.26	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Y0	Log CFU/g	Y0	=average(Y0i), Fixed 3.36	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Yend	Log CFU/g	Yend	=average(Yendi), Fixed 9.04	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
ln(q)		ln(q)	=LN{1/[EXP(h0)−1]}	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Lag time	h	TransLt	=IF{Temptrans>4,	MFDS (2013)
			[1/(−0.0522+0.0142×Temptrans)]2, 1320}
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	TransGr	=IF{Temptrans>5.4235,	MFDS (2013)
			[0.0268×(Temptrans−5.4235)]2, 0}	Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
Non-EHEC	Log CFU/g	C1	=IC+1/{1+EXP[−ln(q)]}×	MFDS (2013)
E. coli growth			[1−10−|Y0−Yend|/LN(10)]×TransGr×timetrans	Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
MARKET
Market storage
Storage time	h	Mark-timest	=RiskPert(0,2,48)	Personal communicationb
Food temperature	°C	Mark-Tempst	=RiskUniform(2,4)	Personal communicationb
during storage
Growth
h0	Log CFU/g	h0	=average(growth rate×lag time), Fixed 2.26	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Y0	Log CFU/g	Y0	=average(Y0i), Fixed 3.36	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Yend	Log CFU/g	Yend	=average(Yendi), Fixed 9.04	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
ln(q)		ln(q)	=LN{1/[EXP(h0)−1]}	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Lag time	h	Markst−TimeLt	=IF{Mark−Tempst>4,	MFDS (2013)
			[1/(−0.0522+0.0142×Mark−Tempst)]2, 1320}
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	Markst−RGr	=IF{Mark−Tempst>5.4235,	MFDS (2013)
			[0.0268×(Mark−Tempst−5.4235)]2, 0}	Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
Non-EHEC	Log CFU/g	C2−1	=C1+1/{1+EXP[−ln(q)]}×[1−10−|Y0−end|/	MFDS (2013)
E. coli growth			LN(10)]×Markst−RGr×Mark−timest	Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Market display
Storage time	h	Mark-timedis	=RiskPert(0,48,168)	Personal communicationb
Food temperature	°C	Mark-Tempdis	=RiskTriang(0.60703,4.1000,15.18)	Lee et al. (2015)
during storage
Growth
h0	Log CFU/g	h0	=average(growth rate×lag time), Fixed 2.26	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Y0	Log CFU/g	Y0	=average(Y0i), Fixed 3.36	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Yend	Log CFU/g	Yend	=average(Yendi), Fixed 9.04	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
ln(q)		ln(q)	=LN{1/[EXP(h0)−1]}	MFDS (2013),
				Baranyi and Roberts (1994)
Lag time	h	Markdis−TimeLt	=IF{Mark−Tempdis>4,	MFDS (2013)
			[1/(−0.0522+0.0142×Mark−Tempdis)]2, 1320}
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	Markdis−RGr	=IF{Mark−Tempdis>5.4235,	MFDS (2013)
			[0.0268×(Mark−Tempdis−5.4235)]2, 0}	Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
Non-EHEC	Log CFU/g	C2	=(C2−1)+1/{1+EXP[−ln(q)]}×[1−10−|Y0−end|/	MFDS (2013)
E. coli growth			LN(10)]×Markdis−RGr×Mark−timedis	Baranyi and Roberts (1994)